CHAPTER 18: IT IS HARD TO BE A GOOD HOUSE IN A CHALLENGED NEIGHBORHOOD

1. Martin Wolf, “A Rebuff of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Is Folly,” Financial Times, March 24, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0dff595e-d16a-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html.

2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “M&A Boom Must Evolve to Create Growth,” Financial Times, August 20, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3b11b24-26c5-11e4-8df5-00144feabdc0.html.

3. Michael MacKenzie and Eric Platt, “US Companies on Course to Return $1 Trillion to Shareholders in 2015,” Financial Times, April 12, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2c1a34d8-dfa5-11e4-a06a-00144feab7de.html.

CHAPTER 19: ADDRESSING THE TEN BIG CHALLENGES

1. “Q and A with Charles Plosser, President of the Fed: Raise Interest Rates Sooner Rather than Later,” New York Times, January 30, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/upshot/q-and-a-with-charles-plosser-of-the-fed-raise-rates-sooner-rather-than-later.html.

2. Chris Giles and Ferdinando Giugliano, “Raise Rates or Face ‘Devastating Bubbles,’ Says Fed Official,” Financial Times, March 23, 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/62c65f4c-d15f-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html.

3. Stanley Fischer, “Monetary Policy and the Way Ahead,” speech to the Economic Club of New York, March 23, 2015, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150323a.htm.

CHAPTER 20: THE REDUCED-FORM APPROACH TO A GRAND POLICY DESIGN

1. Special thanks to Professor Michael Spence, who has been instrumental in helping me think through these issues.

2. The 2015 Economic Report of the President, White House Council of Economic Advisers, February 19, 2015, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/cea_2015_erp.pdf.

3. Michael Spence, “Five Reasons for Slow Growth,” Project Syndicate, September 29, 2014, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/slow-economic-growth-reasons-by-michael-spence-2014-12.

4. “The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt,” International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., June 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/052214a.pdf.

5. See, for example, “Debt Relief Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative,” IMF Factsheet, Washington, D.C., September 2014, https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/hipc.htm.

6. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten,” IMF Working Paper, WP/13/266, December 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13266.pdf.

7. “Bleak Words and Difficult Homework from the IMF,” Financial Times, October 5, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/53516aec-4af6-11e4-b1be-00144feab7de.html.

8. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The New Isolationism: Why the World’s Richest Countries Can’t Work Together,” Atlantic, September 3, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-new-isolationism-why-the-worlds-richest-countries-cant-work-together/279282/.

CHAPTER 21: WHEN DESIRABLE AND FEASIBLE DIFFER

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “Obama Sets Terms of 2016 Debate,” Bloomberg View, January 21, 2015, http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-21/obama-sets-terms-of-2016-debate.

2. Amartya K. Sen, “Rational Fools: A Critique of the Behavioral Foundations of Economic Theory,” Philosophy and Public Affairs 6, no. 4 (Summer 1977), http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2264946?sid=21105866957553&uid=3739256&uid=4&uid=2&uid=3739560.

3. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The 1 Equation Investors Need to Know to Understand the World Today,” Atlantic, May 22, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/05/the-1-equation-investors-need-to-know-to-understand-the-world-today/276124/.

CHAPTER 22: TURNING PARALYZING COMPLEXITY INTO ACTIONABLE SIMPLICITY

1. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “What We Need from the IMF/World Bank Meetings,” Financial Times, October 6, 2013, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/10/06/what-we-need-from-the-imfworld-bank-meetings/.

CHAPTER 23: THE BELLY OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES

1. “The World in 2015,” Economist, December 2014.

2. Michael J. Casey, “Flattening Yield Curve Latest Complication for Fed,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/12/flattening-yield-curve-latest-complication-for-fed/?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLE_Video_Third.

3. Mohamed A. El-Erian, “The Instability in Central Bank Divergence,” Financial Times, February 26, 2014, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2014/02/26/the-instability-in-central-bank-divergence/.